Two weeks before the May 4th regional elections in Madrid, the latest polls suggest that that the right-wing Partido Popular will be the largest party winning around 41% of the vote followed by the Socialist PSOE, a distant second on 24%.
The poll published today in the daily El Mundo newspaper, would give the Partido Popular 56-60 seats in the 132 seat regional assembly, meaning she could govern as a minority or in coalition with Vox – between them they are forecast to poll 54% of the vote and 73 seats compared to the combined left-wing parties of 44% and 62 seats.
The former left wing governing coalition of Madrid, Más Madrid are presently on 13%, with the far-right Vox on 9%, Unidas Podemos at 7% and Ciudadanos 4%
The result will be a hugely improved position for the PP who may even be able to double their 2019 tally of 30 seats and 22% of the vote.
The poll shows that right-wing vote appears to be more solid than that of the left with 90% of PP and 89% of Vox voters saying they will turn out on the day to vote for their party compared to Podemos (80%), Más Madrid (80 %), Cs (76%) and PSOE (77%).
Of those that did not vote in the 2019 regional elections, 17% have indicated a vote for the left parties of PSOE, Más Madrid or Podemos while 27% will do so for a right-wing party (of which 90% are for PP).
In a boost for the PP leader, 5% of PSOE voters will vote for her party due to her perceived well handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
The Madrid regional premier has often been at odds with the central government of Pedro Sanchez in her response to dealing with the situation.
In addition the Partido Popular appears to be benefiting most the collapse in support for the Ciudadanos party – their former coalition partner – who are struggling to get over the 5% of the vote threshold for seats.
In 2019 the centre party took 20% of the vote and 26 seats.
If Ciudadanos does not reach the 5% threshold it seems that those votes will translate into seats for the PP, however if they do make it over the line the regional assembly could be tied between left and right wing blocks.
The main left wing party, PSOE who in 2019 were the largest party gaining 37 seats from 27% are struggling too.
Their leader, Ángel Gabilondo launched their campaign today, Sunday 18th April to attempt to claim the Spanish capital for the first time in 26 years.