The respected thinktank the CEBR ( Centre for Economics and Business Research) has released it´s report for the global economy to 2035.
In it, the report forecasts that although Spain has been one of the hardest hit economies from the coronavirus pandemic falling by 12% in 2020, it will recover steadily in the coming decade and even overtake Italy by 2035.
In the report´s global rankings, the size of the Spanish economy is expected to fall from 14th to 15th place in the coming decade, before overtaking Italy to move to 13th place by 2035.
Spain has been impacted greatly by the coronavirus pandemic with the 8th highest number of cases and the 9th highest number of deaths. These figures are even more stark when considered on a proportional basis, with Spain recording the world’s 6th highest death rate per million people of the population.
The report notes the long and stringent periods of lockdown led to a substantial curtailment of economic activity amongst consumers and businesses alike including shutdown of sectors such as construction, manufacturing and hospitality.
Spain´s tourism sector has been particularly badly hit by the halt in global travel,with a subsequent knock-on effect as the sector´s size has dropped from an estimated 14% to 4% of the country´s GDP.
The sector also makes up 15.0% of total employment and until the curtailment of international travel is resumed the sector will be unable to recover – particularly in coastal regions that
are disproportionately reliant on such activity.
However several rounds of fiscal stimulus, inlcuding the European Union´s Recovery Fund are being implemented by Spanish policymakers in an effort to keep vulnerable sectors of the economy afloat.
The effectiveness of the vaccine rollout programme will be a determining factor in the economy´s domestic recovery in 2021.
As it stands, the report does not expect the Spanish economy to return to pre-pan